All signs point to amaking its way into the . But they might come at half the that many were expecting. President-elect Joe Biden has hinted that more stimulus relief is yet to come in early 2021 — would a be part of it? And if it is, how could a hope to pass in two months when it’s already been eight months since the first stimulus check was approved?
“The stimulus package has occurred,” Biden said Wednesday, referring to the state of negotiations over a. “And it looks like there’s going to be direct cash payments. But it’s a down payment — an important down payment — on what’s going to have to be done at the end of January and into February.”
The best hope for a larger, and the package that goes with it, could boil down to this: .
There’s no guarantee, however, a new administration working with a new group of legislators will make swifter progress on anpast January. While both the White House and House of Representatives will be led by Democrats, control of the Senate will depend on two runoff elections in Georgia, on Jan. 5. The outcome of those contests will determine which party runs the Senate. It could also have an impact on whether or not Congress considers a second stimulus check.
Stimulus checks are popular — and expensive
The IRS has said it spent around $270 billion to send 160 million stimulus checks, but it’s likely that total number, once catch-up payments are added in, is closer to $300 billion. That’s enough money to keep a second stimulus check out of the current stimulus bill, according to a Washington Post report.
Many economists argue now is not the time to rein in federal spending, with the economy struggling to get back on its feet. Instead the federal government should look to send out more aid to prop up the economy.
“Being timid in our policy solutions during this crisis would be a mistake,” wrote William Gale, senior fellow in the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. “Congress needs to allocate more resources — trillions of dollars — for relief and stimulus to support people and businesses.”
For tens of millions of taxpayers, the majority of the, with a quarter going into savings, according to a Census Bureau survey from this summer. With Biden warning the country is heading into a “dark winter” — facing a spike in coronavirus cases across the US and an economy continuing to shed jobs — a second check would likely find similar uses.
Since this summer, however, some Republicans in Congress have balked at funding another large aid package as the US deficit has climbed, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has repeatedly said that any bill will need to have a significantly smaller price tag than the $2.2 trillion proposal pushed by House Democrats through the fall to get Senate Republican support.
Whichever party controls the Senate can make or break a larger stimulus check
Biden has called on Congress to pass more aid now, in the lame-duck session, before he assumes office on. But the president-elect said anything Washington sends now would “at best only be a down payment” on more substantial aid once he takes office.
As a Democrat, Biden’s path to getting economic aid approved — including a second check — could be much smoother if Democrats also hold both chambers of Congress in the new year. In the next Congress, which begins in the first days of January, Democrats will keep a slim majority in the House.
Control of the Senate, however, will depend on run-off elections in Georgia on Jan. 5 for two Senate seats. If Democrats win both elections, the party will control the Senate with 50 seats — 48 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the party — and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’ having the power to break ties.
If Republicans win one or both seats in January, the GOP will keep control of the Senate and Biden will start his term with a divided government, with a Republican party led by McConnell, who could oppose a second check for the expense.
If Republicans maintain Senate control, here’s what could happen
While the group of Republican and Democratic senators who worked on December’spoint to a possible path of cooperation between Biden and the next Congress, it is just as likely that Senate Republicans could try to rein in spending if they retain control of the upper chamber.
If Biden does face a divided Congress, he will most likely do what every president has done when one or both chambers is in the other party’s hands, and look for areas where the two sides can find common ground. Passage of a new sweeping stimulus package might be off the table, but smaller aid proposals focused on specific needs — such as an increase in the minimum wage ortightly focused on those most in need — could find bipartisan support.
Biden could also look atsome of his goals, much as President Donald Trump did this summer with . But without spending authority (only Congress has that), Biden would be limited in what he could accomplish without Congressional help — he wouldn’t be able to access the funds to send a second check.
As we wait for the new Congress and the Biden administration, here’s where , which unless Congress decides to renew them and how soon you could once approved by Washington.